One of the questions we hear most often from business owners when they're considering selling their company is always the same: “Is now the right time?”. And although it sounds like a question about the market — multiples, active funds, the macro cycle — it actually has two answers that need to be looked at together. Because a sale only works when the timing of the market and the timing of the business owner line up.
In M&A, we call this “the two clocks”. And, especially when it comes to the market clock, there's a key nuance: it doesn't read the same in every industry. What's a good time to sell an industrial company may not be a good time to sell a professional services firm, and vice versa.
In this article, we first look at the two-clocks framework and then get into what matters most: how to tell whether your specific industry is in a good moment to sell.
The framework: the two clocks that matter
Every sale decision has two dimensions that move at different speeds. One is external (it doesn't depend on you): the state of the market, the buyers, and the multiples in your industry. The other is internal (it depends only on you): your energy, your stage of life, and your plans. A successful sale requires both clocks to show the same time.
The most common trap is focusing on just one. The business owner who decides to sell only because they're tired, without checking whether the market is active, tends to close a poor deal or not close at all. And the one who obsesses over multiples and active funds without listening to their own exhaustion tends to regret it after closing.
The real cost of being out of sync
Before getting into how to read the industry clock, it's worth understanding what happens when the clocks aren't aligned — because in M&A the consequences are tangible and tend to appear after the decision has been made, when they're hard to correct.
These two scenarios are the reason it pays to look at industry signals well in advance. If your industry is in a window of opportunity and you're not ready yet, there's still time to professionalize the company before the window closes. And if you're ready but the industry is cold, there are intermediate options worth considering (waiting, selling in stages, or looking for a specific buyer outside the industry).
Why the market clock is read industry by industry
When someone asks “How is M&A doing?”, the honest answer is: it depends on the industry. While a logistics SME may be receiving unsolicited offers from multiple funds, a traditional retail company in the same region may have gone months without any activity. Aggregate M&A figures are useful for understanding the macro picture, but misleading when applied to a specific deal.
There are several reasons why the clock moves at different speeds in each industry, but the main ones are three:
- Fund investment cycles. Each industry goes through phases when funds identify it as an “investment thesis theme” and raise capital specifically for it, followed by phases when it cools down. Private equity has a long memory but a rotating focus.
- Natural consolidation. When an industry enters a consolidation phase, multiples soar because several strategic buyers are looking to scale up quickly. When consolidation is well advanced, prices cool down because few large buyers are left.
- External disruptions. Regulatory, technological, or consumer changes open or close windows abruptly. AI in professional services is a recent example: it has led many buyers to look for “AI-proof” companies at premium valuations.
For an up-to-date picture of which industries are especially active in Spanish M&A right now, see our analysis of Spanish M&A trends by industry.
The four industry signals that matter
Beyond the headlines, there are four concrete signals worth watching to understand whether your industry is in a good moment to sell:
1. Industry multiples versus the historical average
EBITDA multiples are the quickest metric for knowing whether an industry is expensive or cheap. The question isn't just “What are buyers paying?”, but “What are buyers paying compared with the last 5–10 years?”. When an industry is clearly above its historical average multiple, there's an attractive window to sell. When it's below, it's better to wait or strengthen the company before going to market.
2. Volume of closed deals in the industry
Announcements are one thing; closings are another. Looking at how many deals have actually closed in your industry over the last 12–18 months gives you a much cleaner reading than abstract “trends.” An industry with many closed deals and closings within reasonable time frames is a liquid industry — yours is sellable. An industry with many deals started but few closed signals friction: prices don't match, due diligence is tough, and financing is complicated.
3. Profile of active buyers
It's not the same for your industry to be bought by financial buyers (private equity, search funds) as by strategic buyers (industry players looking to grow inorganically). Strategic buyers tend to pay higher premiums because they see synergies, but they're less predictable and depend on their own cycle. Funds are more methodical but offer tighter multiples. Knowing who is active in your industry tells you a lot about the kind of process you can expect and what multiple is realistic.
4. Appetite from specialized funds and “investment thesis themes”
Some industries go through moments when they become an investment thesis theme for several funds at once — renewable energy a few years ago, healthtech more recently, B2B software in different waves. When this happens, processes become competitive, timelines shorten, and multiples rise. It's the ideal phase to sell. Identifying whether your industry is at this point requires some market intelligence, but the signals tend to be clear: several funds doing outbound without you having contacted them, comparables closing quickly and at higher prices, and the trade press talking about the industry.
How to assess your industry in four steps
Based on the four signals above, this is the practical exercise we recommend:
1. Identify the 5–10 closest comparables to your company (same industry, similar size, same country or region).
2. Gather the published deal multiples for those comparables over the last 24 months. If they aren't public (common with SMEs), a professional valuation can give you a realistic range based on comparable information.
3. Identify what type of buyer is active in your industry: More strategic buyers or more funds? What size? Local or international? This defines the kind of process you'll have.
4. Compare it with your personal clock. Even if the industry signals are favorable, if your internal clock isn't aligned, it's worth reflecting before moving forward. And the other way around: if you're ready but the industry is cold, it's worth exploring intermediate options or waiting for the window to change.
A final observation: the industry window closes
Favorable windows to sell in an industry don't last indefinitely. It's one of the hardest lessons in M&A: the business owner who puts off the decision waiting for “the perfect moment” often finds that, by the time they finally decide to sell, the window has already closed and multiples have dropped.
The timing paradox in M&A is that the best time to sell is usually a few months before the industry reaches its peak. Waiting for the exact peak is practically impossible and, when people try, they usually end up selling after it. That's why it's worth starting to prepare the process well in advance, even if the final decision to go to market is made at a more measured pace.
If you've spotted positive signals in your industry and you think your personal clock is also starting to point in that direction, the first useful step — even before deciding whether to sell — is understanding what your company is worth today and what multiple range applies to you given where your industry stands.
What if your business already had a buyer today?
At Deale, we analyze your business and connect it with investors looking for companies like yours. We've facilitated 200+ deals and are Europe's leading platform for buying and selling SMEs.
